Oil is now flowing out of the Persian Gulf like before the Iran war. Why prices may still not come down anytime soon.

Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf in October nearly returned to levels seen before the Iran war began, according to the report. That recovery in shipment volumes is a meaningful signal for global crude markets, since the Gulf is one of the world's most important export corridors. When flows normalize, it typically eases some of the physical supply anxiety that builds during geopolitical disruptions.

Yet the report notes traders remain wary about a fragile recovery. That caution helps explain why prices may not fall quickly even as volumes improve. Markets tend to price in risk, not just current supply. Lingering uncertainty about the durability of the rebound, and the possibility of renewed disruption, can keep a risk premium embedded in crude benchmarks. Shipping and insurance costs, which often stay elevated after conflict, can also slow the pass-through to consumer prices.

For observers, the key things to watch are whether Gulf export volumes hold at these levels in the coming months and whether traders' wariness fades. A sustained, stable recovery would be more likely to weigh on prices than a single month of stronger flows.